The COVID-19 pandemic has deepened globalisation’s long crisis, as risks proliferate across borders as rapidly as opportunities. We face an emergency with dimensions that are unfolding simultaneously but at different speeds: public health (2+ years), economic (a decade), polarisation and insecurity (a generation or more). Other threats – climate change in particular – have not gone away. We have entered the most critical ten years in human history – it is now or never to secure a planet for 10 billion people. The Long Crisis Scenarios explore futures where the foundations for collective action are strengthened or eroded, and where the responsibility for acting becomes increasingly distributed or where power is monopolised by the centre. They provide a basis for exploring what “winning ugly” – messy but ultimately effective problem solving – could look like in the 2020s.
Read the full scenarios here: http://longcrisis.org/scenarios
David Steven co-founded the Long Crisis Network and is editor of the Global Dashboard website. He is a senior fellow at the UN Foundation, and at New York University, where he founded the Global Partnership to End Violence Against Children and the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies. He is also a former senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He was lead author for the ministerial Task Force on Justice for All and senior external adviser for the UN-World Bank flagship study on conflict prevention.
Wednesday, 01 July 2020
11:00 - 11:45 BST
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