The future of the financial services industry – centred in the City of London – matters enormously to the health of the United Kingdom’s economy. The Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) has few provisions on financial services and the UK now appears set to drive a wedge between EU and British rules so it can “benefit” from its new-found Brexit freedom. In reality, this “wedge” is unlikely to benefit the economic prospects of the City or the United Kingdom.
There can be no doubt that the EU will use the “autonomy of its decision-making process” – as stressed in the TCA. If the UK wishes to row alongside the EU super-tanker and “take” its rules, then the UK will remain “equivalent”. But current UK policy intentions suggest there will be an ever-widening gulf by the end of this Commission’s term in 2024 – as the logical outcome of UK policy. The internationally mobile financial services industry will undoubtedly take account of this probability in planning the location of future business opportunities.
How might this play out by say 2024? Could the divergence cause the end of the City’s dominance of European finance? It might well do.
Friday, 04 June 2021
11:00 - 11:45 GMT