Mathematical models help us understand and predict the future evolution of complex systems like the covid-19 pandemic, aspects of the economy, or the earth's climate. But there are dangers of becoming trapped in Model Land: over-confidence in modelled outputs typically leads to underestimation of real-world risk. I will discuss two possible quantitative escape routes from Model Land and reflect on the necessary nuances of implementing these strategies for real-world prediction questions.
Dr Erica Thompson works on Ethics of Modelling and Simulation at LSE's new Data Science Institute and is also a Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory. With a background in mathematics and physics, she is engaged in fundamental research about the applicability of modelling and simulation methods to real-life prediction questions including applications in climate change, pandemics, economics and anticipation of humanitarian crises.
Thursday, 14 October 2021
10:00 - 10:45 BST
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